Applied Psychology

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Track 444

Decision-Making & Cognitive Bias

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1Two Systems: Fast and Slow ThinkingOne mind, two very different ways of processing the worldBeginner 2Ego Depletion and Decision FatigueSelf-control is a depletable resource, and judges aren't exemptIntermediate 3The Bat-and-Ball Problem: When Fast Thinking Beats ArithmeticThe obvious answer is wrong, and most people never checkBeginner 4Representativeness: Steve the Librarian and Tom W's SpecialtyA description that fits a stereotype crowds out the actual statisticsIntermediate 5The Linda Problem: Why More Detail Feels More LikelyA specific, coherent story can feel more probable than a broader category it belongs toIntermediate 6The Law of Small NumbersSmall samples produce extreme results — and extreme results invite false explanationsIntermediate 7The Hot Hand FallacyStreaks feel meaningful even when they're statistically indistinguishable from chanceIntermediate 8Regression to the MeanExtreme results are usually followed by more average ones — with or without any interventionIntermediate 9The Illusion of ValidityConfidence in a judgment and the accuracy of that judgment are two different thingsAdvanced 10Expert Forecasters vs. Simple FormulasA basic statistical formula routinely beats confident human expertiseAdvanced 11Expert Intuition: When to Trust the GutGenuine expert intuition exists — but only under specific, learnable conditionsAdvanced 12The Planning FallacyForecasts for big projects are almost always, and predictably, too optimisticIntermediate 13Hindsight Bias: The "I-Knew-It-All-Along" TrapOutcomes feel inevitable in hindsight, even when they genuinely weren't predictableIntermediate 14Anchors Even Experts Don't NoticeA random number, seen moments earlier, can move a professional judgmentIntermediate 15Regret and the Weight of Action vs. InactionThe same bad outcome feels worse when it followed doing something differentlyIntermediate 16The Peak-End Rule: How Memory Distorts ExperienceYou don't remember an experience — you remember a highlight reel of its worst and last momentsAdvanced

Decision-Making & Cognitive Bias